On 18th December, Asia Society held a panel talkin New York and GIFP was invited to participated. Four guests were invited, Ravi Agrawal, Nicholas Consonery, Somini Sengupta and Tom Nagarski as guests.The panel talk discussed the US-China relationship and the current situation of the US-China trade war.
Nicholas Consonery, the director of Global Markets Reasearch and Strategy at the Eurasia Group, said that "I believe that in 2020, this basic trend of US-China relationship will remain negative and decoupling. Such trend will have a huge impact on all other issues, from climate change to the prospects for economic growth in the region and the rest of the world. Different from the trade impasse, the tension between the United States and China in the next stage will take on new characteristics. Such characteristics may be about ideology, values, national security and high technology,"
Consonery predicted that the "second phase agreement" between the US and China is unlikely to be reached before the 2020 US presidential electionwhich is on November 3, 2020. Hebelieves that the sustainedtension between the US and China in 2020is caused by both sides. First of all, as long as the US stock market and economy remain goodmomentum, Trump will continue to take a tough stance towards China. "We have seen a clear pattern, that is, when Trump performs well in the stock market and economy, he is encouraged to take a tougher stance towards China." this is an important strategy for his 2016 general election, whichI think will be very similar in 2020.
Consonery also believes that under the leadership of Xi Jinping, Chinese government seems tohave nointerest in pursuing fundamental economic reforms, which haspushed the US policy toward China to adjust to a harderline.
Another guest in the panel talk, the managing editor of Foreign PolicyRavi Agrawal, expressed his concern about the simultaneous slowdown in global economic growth in 2020, as predicted by the International Monetary Fund.
He said, "It's clear that Asian economies need growth to achieve all their goals, such as to creat jobs, to keep the vibrant young population healthy, happy and hopeful, only in this way can the infrastructure commitments made by many leaders be fulfilled. If the economy continues to slow down in South Asia, I think all these things will change. For example, until recent years, India has been the fastest growing country in the world, however, now the most worrying is its sharp slowdown. Last quarter's growth rate of Inda was 4.5%, down from 9.3% in 2016. This is a real slowdown. The consequences from this could be far reaching and very worrying. That's what I'm worried about. "
Four experts on international issues presented brilliant views and expressed different opinions at the panel talk. Thank Asia Society to hold this wonderful activity and invite GIFP. GIFP looksforward to furthering cooperation with Asia Society in the future.
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